Indonesia
Contents
Indonesia#
The first application of FEO Global is the development of an openly available electricity systems model for Indonesia. This model is used to explore transition pathways to a net-zero electricity system. As with all energy system models, the inputs include a range of datasets and assumptions (e.g. technology cost projections, discount rates). All of these inputs are described here in order to allow for the model to be reviewed, re-run, and re-purposed.
Model scope#
The model aims to represent the electricity system of Indonesia as accurately as possible, subject to constraints on data and computation time. The main aspects that improve the accuracy of the model’s representation of Indonesia’s electricity system are its spatial and temporal resolution.
Spatial resolution#
The model represents all 34 provinces of Indonesia across 7 regions - shown in the table and map below - as individual nodes.
Region |
Province |
Province (English) |
Model code |
|---|---|---|---|
Jawa |
Banten |
Banten |
IDNBT |
Jawa |
Jakarta Raya |
Jakarta |
IDNJK |
Jawa |
Jawa Barat |
West Java |
IDNJB |
Jawa |
Jawa Tengah |
Central Java |
IDNJT |
Jawa |
Jawa Timur |
East Indonesia |
IDNJI |
Jawa |
Yogyakarta |
Yogyakarta |
IDNYO |
Kalimantan |
Kalimantan Barat |
West Kalimantan |
IDNKB |
Kalimantan |
Kalimantan Selatan |
South Kalimantan |
IDNKS |
Kalimantan |
Kalimantan Tengah |
Central Kalimantan |
IDNKT |
Kalimantan |
Kalimantan Timur |
East Kalimantan |
IDNKI |
Kalimantan |
Kalimantan Utara |
North Kalimantan |
IDNKU |
Maluku |
Maluku |
Maluku |
IDNMA |
Maluku |
Maluku Utara |
North Maluku |
IDNMU |
Nusa Tenggara |
Bali |
Bali |
IDNBA |
Nusa Tenggara |
Nusa Tenggara Barat |
West Nusa Tenggara |
IDNNB |
Nusa Tenggara |
Nusa Tenggara Timur |
East Nusa Tenggara |
IDNNT |
Papua |
Papua |
Papua |
IDNPA |
Papua |
Papua Barat |
West Papua |
IDNPB |
Sulawesi |
Gorontalo |
Gorontalo |
IDNGO |
Sulawesi |
Sulawesi Selatan |
South Sulawesi |
IDNSN |
Sulawesi |
Sulawesi Tengah |
Central Sulawesi |
IDNST |
Sulawesi |
Sulawesi Tenggara |
Southeast Sulawesi |
IDNSG |
Sulawesi |
Sulawesi Utara |
North Sulawesi |
IDNSA |
Sulawesi |
Sulawesi Barat |
West Sulawesi |
IDNSR |
Sumatera |
Aceh |
Aceh |
IDNAC |
Sumatera |
Bengkulu |
Bengkulu |
IDNBE |
Sumatera |
Jambi |
Jambi |
IDNJA |
Sumatera |
Kepulauan Bangka Belitung |
Bangka-Belitung |
IDNBB |
Sumatera |
Kepulauan Riau |
Riau Islands |
IDNKR |
Sumatera |
Lampung |
Lampung |
IDNLA |
Sumatera |
Riau |
Riau |
IDNRI |
Sumatera |
Sumatera Barat |
West Sumatra |
IDNSB |
Sumatera |
Sumatera Selatan |
South Sumatra |
IDNSS |
Sumatera |
Sumatera Utara |
North Sumatra |
IDNSU |
Temporal resolution#
Each year is divided into 6 ‘Seasons’ [S1-S6]:
Season |
Months |
|---|---|
S1 |
Jan, Feb |
S2 |
Mar, Apr |
S3 |
May, Jun |
S4 |
Jul, Aug |
S5 |
Sep, Oct |
S6 |
Nov, Dec |
Each ‘Season’ is further divided into 12 ‘Daily Time Brackets’:
Daily time bracket |
Hours of the day |
|---|---|
D1 |
0, 1 |
D2 |
2, 3 |
D3 |
4, 5 |
D4 |
6, 7 |
D5 |
8, 9 |
D6 |
10, 11 |
D7 |
12, 13 |
D8 |
14, 15 |
D9 |
16, 17 |
D10 |
18, 19 |
D11 |
20, 21 |
D12 |
22, 23 |
Together, there are 72 representative ‘timeslices’ in the model. The temporal resolution is the same for the entire model period.
Model horizon#
Base year - 2021
End year - 2050
Key assumptions#
Discount rates#
The model includes two types of discount rates (DR): ‘social’ and ‘financial’. The social DR is applied across the entire model and represents the relative weighting of present and future costs and benefits. A low social DR weights the present and the future more similarly than a high DR. The financial DR is technology-specific and represents the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for a given technology (e.g. power plant). The model assumes a value of 10% for both the social and financial discount rates. The latter is based on the IEA Cost of Capital Observatory
Reserve Margin#
The Reserve margin decreases from the current level of 60% to 35% by 2030.
Data#
Technology costs#
Battery costs from NREL All other costs from OSeMOSYS Global and PLEXOS World.
Technology |
Unit |
2021 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BAT |
USD2020/kWh |
330 |
198 |
173 |
149 |
BIO |
USD2020/kW |
2038 |
2038 |
2013 |
2013 |
CCG |
USD2020/kW |
790 |
790 |
790 |
790 |
COA |
USD2020/kW |
1442 |
1442 |
1442 |
1442 |
COG |
USD2020/kW |
1030 |
1030 |
1030 |
1030 |
CSP |
USD2020/kW |
3088 |
3088 |
2675 |
2675 |
GEO |
USD2020/kW |
2625 |
2625 |
2513 |
2513 |
HYD |
USD2020/kW |
2088 |
2088 |
2113 |
2113 |
OCG |
USD2020/kW |
425 |
425 |
425 |
425 |
OIL |
USD2020/kW |
1240 |
1240 |
1240 |
1240 |
OTH |
USD2020/kW |
1240 |
1240 |
1240 |
1240 |
PET |
USD2020/kW |
1240 |
1240 |
1240 |
1240 |
SPV |
USD2020/kW |
723 |
723 |
615 |
615 |
URN |
USD2020/kW |
3263 |
3263 |
3200 |
3200 |
WAS |
USD2020/kW |
6663 |
6663 |
6550 |
6550 |
WAV |
USD2020/kW |
4475 |
4475 |
3350 |
3350 |
WOF |
USD2020/kW |
2355 |
2355 |
1968 |
1968 |
WON |
USD2020/kW |
1513 |
1513 |
1475 |
1475 |
Renewable Energy Profiles#
Hourly renewable energy profiles for wind (onshore and offshore) and solar PV in each province were obtained from renewables.ninja. Data for 2020 was used.
Renewable Energy Potentials#
Data on renewable energy potentials by province was obtained from multiple sources:
Geothermal: ‘Volcanostratigraphy of Batukuwung-Parakasak Geothermal Area, Serang Regency, West Java’, U. Sumotarto, 2019
Solar PV: ‘Beyond 443 GW - Indonesia’s Infinite Renewable Energy Potentials’, IESR, 2021
Wind: ‘Beyond 443 GW - Indonesia’s Infinite Renewable Energy Potentials’, IESR, 2021
Biomass: ‘Beyond 443 GW - Indonesia’s Infinite Renewable Energy Potentials’, IESR, 2021
Hydropower: International Hydropower Association, 2019
Potential (GW) by province |
Solar photovoltaic |
Wind - Onshore |
Hydropower |
Biomass |
Geothermal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Banten |
175.94 |
1.21 |
4.67 |
0.93 |
1.31 |
Jakarta Raya |
11.60 |
0.02 |
0.09 |
0.02 |
0.03 |
Jawa Barat |
11.97 |
0.00 |
0.11 |
0.34 |
0.64 |
Jawa Tengah |
55.70 |
0.00 |
0.85 |
0.35 |
0.03 |
Jawa Timur |
11.97 |
0.01 |
1.01 |
0.02 |
0.04 |
Yogyakarta |
5.98 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
Kalimantan Barat |
249.47 |
0.00 |
0.65 |
2.06 |
1.05 |
Kalimantan Selatan |
40.91 |
0.42 |
1.45 |
0.36 |
6.63 |
Kalimantan Tengah |
54.23 |
0.19 |
1.27 |
0.11 |
1.83 |
Kalimantan Timur |
66.69 |
0.21 |
1.31 |
0.16 |
1.16 |
Kalimantan Utara |
983.49 |
0.00 |
6.54 |
3.00 |
0.05 |
Maluku |
193.80 |
0.09 |
0.93 |
0.87 |
0.00 |
Maluku Utara |
586.46 |
0.00 |
2.49 |
3.77 |
0.00 |
Bali |
1100.71 |
0.00 |
6.63 |
2.40 |
0.00 |
Nusa Tenggara Barat |
135.59 |
0.00 |
5.01 |
0.55 |
0.00 |
Nusa Tenggara Timur |
209.08 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.23 |
0.03 |
Papua |
20.49 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.66 |
0.00 |
Papua Barat |
64.98 |
0.00 |
0.47 |
1.65 |
2.86 |
Gorontalo |
196.59 |
4.86 |
0.55 |
0.06 |
0.23 |
Sulawesi Selatan |
81.05 |
0.00 |
0.18 |
0.01 |
0.23 |
Sulawesi Tengah |
40.58 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
0.07 |
0.14 |
Sulawesi Tenggara |
312.49 |
5.94 |
0.24 |
0.14 |
1.04 |
Sulawesi Utara |
571.50 |
0.16 |
19.98 |
0.36 |
0.03 |
Sulawesi Barat |
149.57 |
0.00 |
2.42 |
0.15 |
0.03 |
Aceh |
261.47 |
0.00 |
0.14 |
4.67 |
0.03 |
Bengkulu |
86.06 |
6.53 |
2.65 |
0.11 |
0.32 |
Jambi |
156.68 |
0.00 |
4.55 |
0.06 |
0.37 |
Kepulauan Bangka Belitung |
195.25 |
0.00 |
1.10 |
0.06 |
0.30 |
Kepulauan Riau |
14.04 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.87 |
Lampung |
72.76 |
0.00 |
2.87 |
1.00 |
1.62 |
Riau |
389.52 |
0.00 |
0.97 |
5.00 |
1.91 |
Sumatera Barat |
213.06 |
0.04 |
4.98 |
1.43 |
3.63 |
Sumatera Selatan |
7.35 |
0.00 |
0.06 |
0.01 |
0.01 |
Sumatera Utara |
22.27 |
0.00 |
0.89 |
0.11 |
0.00 |
Electricity demand projections#
Electricity demands for all 34 provinces, current and projected, are inputs to the model. Electricity demand by province for 2021 is obtained from the RUPTL 2021-2030. The methodology used to project these demands between 2021-2050 is detailed here and summarised below.
Province |
Model code |
2021 |
2025 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Banten |
IDNBT |
23831 |
27125 |
31314 |
41882 |
56285 |
Jawa Barat |
IDNJB |
53318 |
55595 |
58492 |
65137 |
72835 |
Jawa Timur |
IDNJI |
39457 |
41847 |
44887 |
51966 |
60358 |
Jakarta Raya |
IDNJK |
32709 |
56416 |
86572 |
192336 |
449512 |
Jawa Tengah |
IDNJT |
26661 |
26954 |
27327 |
28133 |
28964 |
Yogyakarta |
IDNYO |
3108 |
8022 |
14272 |
38962 |
110752 |
Kalimantan Barat |
IDNKB |
2913 |
4156 |
5900 |
9907 |
17475 |
Kalimantan Timur |
IDNKI |
4049 |
5840 |
8350 |
14305 |
26073 |
Kalimantan Selatan |
IDNKS |
3051 |
4413 |
6323 |
10866 |
19868 |
Kalimantan Tengah |
IDNKT |
1598 |
2254 |
3175 |
5220 |
8792 |
Kalimantan Utara |
IDNKU |
238 |
350 |
508 |
861 |
1485 |
Maluku |
IDNMA |
583 |
938 |
1300 |
2288 |
4145 |
Maluku Utara |
IDNMU |
637 |
1004 |
1380 |
2390 |
4263 |
Bali |
IDNBA |
4708 |
4896 |
5136 |
5716 |
6479 |
Nusa Tenggara Barat |
IDNNB |
2290 |
3623 |
4984 |
8592 |
15040 |
Nusa Tenggara Timur |
IDNNT |
1160 |
1843 |
2541 |
4451 |
8131 |
Papua |
IDNPA |
1238 |
1960 |
2699 |
4687 |
8373 |
Papua Barat |
IDNPB |
583 |
932 |
1288 |
2312 |
4460 |
Gorontalo |
IDNGO |
639 |
793 |
1025 |
1704 |
2857 |
Sulawesi Utara |
IDNSA |
1940 |
2446 |
3206 |
5454 |
9344 |
Sulawesi Tenggara |
IDNSG |
6598 |
8285 |
10822 |
18315 |
31268 |
Sulawesi Selatan |
IDNSN |
1354 |
1679 |
2168 |
3612 |
6117 |
Sulawesi Tengah |
IDNST |
1150 |
1430 |
1851 |
3264 |
6415 |
Aceh |
IDNAC |
3074 |
4284 |
5676 |
9738 |
16847 |
Kepulauan Bangka Belitung |
IDNBB |
1369 |
1877 |
2460 |
4179 |
7246 |
Bengkulu |
IDNBE |
1059 |
1474 |
1952 |
3371 |
5959 |
Jambi |
IDNJA |
2112 |
2952 |
3919 |
6744 |
11700 |
Kepulauan Riau |
IDNKR |
3479 |
4934 |
6608 |
13141 |
27719 |
Lampung |
IDNLA |
5177 |
7215 |
9559 |
16361 |
28107 |
Riau |
IDNRI |
6108 |
8130 |
10454 |
17263 |
29251 |
Sumatera Barat |
IDNSB |
3646 |
5145 |
6868 |
11909 |
20720 |
Sumatera Selatan |
IDNSS |
5594 |
7879 |
10507 |
18177 |
31532 |
Sumatera Utara |
IDNSU |
11748 |
16509 |
21983 |
38639 |
70244 |
Sulawesi Barat |
IDNSR |
439 |
547 |
709 |
1181 |
1973 |
Fuel Prices#
Fuel |
Unit |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Coal |
USD2020/mt |
60.8 |
194.24 |
194.24 |
194.24 |
Natural gas |
USD2020/mmbtu |
3.2 |
23.86 |
23.86 |
23.86 |
Oil |
USD2020/bbl |
42.3 |
76.94 |
76.94 |
76.94 |
Scenarios#
The model was used to explore three scenarios: Current Policies [CP], Least-cost [LC], and Net-Zero [NZ]. The scenarios represent alternate pathways for the expansion of Indonesia’s electricity system. Each scenario consists of a set of assumptions and constraints, as detailed below:
Current policies (TBC)#
This scenario includes all implemented policies related to the expansion of Indonesia’s electricity system as well as committed power plants.
Least-cost#
This represents an ‘unconstrained’ development of the electricity system. It does not include any emission or renewable energy targets. Planned powerplants are provided as ‘options’ to invest in but are not forced into the model.
Net-zero#
This scenario includes an explicit target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050, with peak emissions in 2040.
Results#
Capacity expansion#
BAU
Net-zero
Annual electricity generation mix#
BAU