Indonesia

The first application of FEO Global is the development of an openly available electricity systems model for Indonesia. This model is used to explore transition pathways to a net-zero electricity system. As with all energy system models, the inputs include a range of datasets and assumptions (e.g. technology cost projections, discount rates). All of these inputs are described here in order to allow for the model to be reviewed, re-run, and re-purposed.

Model scope

The model aims to represent the electricity system of Indonesia as accurately as possible, subject to constraints on data and computation time. The main aspects that improve the accuracy of the model’s representation of Indonesia’s electricity system are its spatial and temporal resolution.

Spatial resolution

The model represents all 34 provinces of Indonesia across 7 regions - shown in the table and map below - as individual nodes.

Provinces of Indonesia

Region	Province	Province (English)	Model code
Jawa	Banten	Banten	IDNBT
Jawa	Jakarta Raya	Jakarta	IDNJK
Jawa	Jawa Barat	West Java	IDNJB
Jawa	Jawa Tengah	Central Java	IDNJT
Jawa	Jawa Timur	East Indonesia	IDNJI
Jawa	Yogyakarta	Yogyakarta	IDNYO
Kalimantan	Kalimantan Barat	West Kalimantan	IDNKB
Kalimantan	Kalimantan Selatan	South Kalimantan	IDNKS
Kalimantan	Kalimantan Tengah	Central Kalimantan	IDNKT
Kalimantan	Kalimantan Timur	East Kalimantan	IDNKI
Kalimantan	Kalimantan Utara	North Kalimantan	IDNKU
Maluku	Maluku	Maluku	IDNMA
Maluku	Maluku Utara	North Maluku	IDNMU
Nusa Tenggara	Bali	Bali	IDNBA
Nusa Tenggara	Nusa Tenggara Barat	West Nusa Tenggara	IDNNB
Nusa Tenggara	Nusa Tenggara Timur	East Nusa Tenggara	IDNNT
Papua	Papua	Papua	IDNPA
Papua	Papua Barat	West Papua	IDNPB
Sulawesi	Gorontalo	Gorontalo	IDNGO
Sulawesi	Sulawesi Selatan	South Sulawesi	IDNSN
Sulawesi	Sulawesi Tengah	Central Sulawesi	IDNST
Sulawesi	Sulawesi Tenggara	Southeast Sulawesi	IDNSG
Sulawesi	Sulawesi Utara	North Sulawesi	IDNSA
Sulawesi	Sulawesi Barat	West Sulawesi	IDNSR
Sumatera	Aceh	Aceh	IDNAC
Sumatera	Bengkulu	Bengkulu	IDNBE
Sumatera	Jambi	Jambi	IDNJA
Sumatera	Kepulauan Bangka Belitung	Bangka-Belitung	IDNBB
Sumatera	Kepulauan Riau	Riau Islands	IDNKR
Sumatera	Lampung	Lampung	IDNLA
Sumatera	Riau	Riau	IDNRI
Sumatera	Sumatera Barat	West Sumatra	IDNSB
Sumatera	Sumatera Selatan	South Sumatra	IDNSS
Sumatera	Sumatera Utara	North Sumatra	IDNSU

Temporal resolution

Each year is divided into 6 ‘Seasons’ [S1-S6]:

Teporal resolution - Seasons

Season	Months
S1	Jan, Feb
S2	Mar, Apr
S3	May, Jun
S4	Jul, Aug
S5	Sep, Oct
S6	Nov, Dec

Each ‘Season’ is further divided into 12 ‘Daily Time Brackets’:

Temporal resolution - daily time brackets

Daily time bracket	Hours of the day
D1	0, 1
D2	2, 3
D3	4, 5
D4	6, 7
D5	8, 9
D6	10, 11
D7	12, 13
D8	14, 15
D9	16, 17
D10	18, 19
D11	20, 21
D12	22, 23

Together, there are 72 representative ‘timeslices’ in the model. The temporal resolution is the same for the entire model period.

Model horizon

Base year - 2021

End year - 2050

Key assumptions

Discount rates

The model includes two types of discount rates (DR): ‘social’ and ‘financial’. The social DR is applied across the entire model and represents the relative weighting of present and future costs and benefits. A low social DR weights the present and the future more similarly than a high DR. The financial DR is technology-specific and represents the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for a given technology (e.g. power plant). The model assumes a value of 10% for both the social and financial discount rates. The latter is based on the IEA Cost of Capital Observatory

Reserve Margin

The Reserve margin decreases from the current level of 60% to 35% by 2030.

Data

Technology costs

Battery costs from NREL All other costs from OSeMOSYS Global and PLEXOS World.

Technology cost projections (Capital)

Technology	Unit	2021	2030	2040	2050
BAT	USD2020/kWh	330	198	173	149
BIO	USD2020/kW	2038	2038	2013	2013
CCG	USD2020/kW	790	790	790	790
COA	USD2020/kW	1442	1442	1442	1442
COG	USD2020/kW	1030	1030	1030	1030
CSP	USD2020/kW	3088	3088	2675	2675
GEO	USD2020/kW	2625	2625	2513	2513
HYD	USD2020/kW	2088	2088	2113	2113
OCG	USD2020/kW	425	425	425	425
OIL	USD2020/kW	1240	1240	1240	1240
OTH	USD2020/kW	1240	1240	1240	1240
PET	USD2020/kW	1240	1240	1240	1240
SPV	USD2020/kW	723	723	615	615
URN	USD2020/kW	3263	3263	3200	3200
WAS	USD2020/kW	6663	6663	6550	6550
WAV	USD2020/kW	4475	4475	3350	3350
WOF	USD2020/kW	2355	2355	1968	1968
WON	USD2020/kW	1513	1513	1475	1475

Renewable Energy Profiles

Hourly renewable energy profiles for wind (onshore and offshore) and solar PV in each province were obtained from renewables.ninja. Data for 2020 was used.

Renewable Energy Potentials

Data on renewable energy potentials by province was obtained from multiple sources:

• Geothermal: ‘Volcanostratigraphy of Batukuwung-Parakasak Geothermal Area, Serang Regency, West Java’, U. Sumotarto, 2019

• Solar PV: ‘Beyond 443 GW - Indonesia’s Infinite Renewable Energy Potentials’, IESR, 2021

• Wind: ‘Beyond 443 GW - Indonesia’s Infinite Renewable Energy Potentials’, IESR, 2021

• Biomass: ‘Beyond 443 GW - Indonesia’s Infinite Renewable Energy Potentials’, IESR, 2021

• Hydropower: International Hydropower Association, 2019

Renewable energy potential

Potential (GW) by province	Solar photovoltaic	Wind - Onshore	Hydropower	Biomass	Geothermal
Banten	175.94	1.21	4.67	0.93	1.31
Jakarta Raya	11.60	0.02	0.09	0.02	0.03
Jawa Barat	11.97	0.00	0.11	0.34	0.64
Jawa Tengah	55.70	0.00	0.85	0.35	0.03
Jawa Timur	11.97	0.01	1.01	0.02	0.04
Yogyakarta	5.98	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00
Kalimantan Barat	249.47	0.00	0.65	2.06	1.05
Kalimantan Selatan	40.91	0.42	1.45	0.36	6.63
Kalimantan Tengah	54.23	0.19	1.27	0.11	1.83
Kalimantan Timur	66.69	0.21	1.31	0.16	1.16
Kalimantan Utara	983.49	0.00	6.54	3.00	0.05
Maluku	193.80	0.09	0.93	0.87	0.00
Maluku Utara	586.46	0.00	2.49	3.77	0.00
Bali	1100.71	0.00	6.63	2.40	0.00
Nusa Tenggara Barat	135.59	0.00	5.01	0.55	0.00
Nusa Tenggara Timur	209.08	0.00	0.00	0.23	0.03
Papua	20.49	0.00	0.00	0.66	0.00
Papua Barat	64.98	0.00	0.47	1.65	2.86
Gorontalo	196.59	4.86	0.55	0.06	0.23
Sulawesi Selatan	81.05	0.00	0.18	0.01	0.23
Sulawesi Tengah	40.58	0.03	0.03	0.07	0.14
Sulawesi Tenggara	312.49	5.94	0.24	0.14	1.04
Sulawesi Utara	571.50	0.16	19.98	0.36	0.03
Sulawesi Barat	149.57	0.00	2.42	0.15	0.03
Aceh	261.47	0.00	0.14	4.67	0.03
Bengkulu	86.06	6.53	2.65	0.11	0.32
Jambi	156.68	0.00	4.55	0.06	0.37
Kepulauan Bangka Belitung	195.25	0.00	1.10	0.06	0.30
Kepulauan Riau	14.04	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.87
Lampung	72.76	0.00	2.87	1.00	1.62
Riau	389.52	0.00	0.97	5.00	1.91
Sumatera Barat	213.06	0.04	4.98	1.43	3.63
Sumatera Selatan	7.35	0.00	0.06	0.01	0.01
Sumatera Utara	22.27	0.00	0.89	0.11	0.00

Electricity demand projections

Electricity demands for all 34 provinces, current and projected, are inputs to the model. Electricity demand by province for 2021 is obtained from the RUPTL 2021-2030. The methodology used to project these demands between 2021-2050 is detailed here and summarised below.

Electricity demand projections (GWh)

Province	Model code	2021	2025	2030	2040	2050
Banten	IDNBT	23831	27125	31314	41882	56285
Jawa Barat	IDNJB	53318	55595	58492	65137	72835
Jawa Timur	IDNJI	39457	41847	44887	51966	60358
Jakarta Raya	IDNJK	32709	56416	86572	192336	449512
Jawa Tengah	IDNJT	26661	26954	27327	28133	28964
Yogyakarta	IDNYO	3108	8022	14272	38962	110752
Kalimantan Barat	IDNKB	2913	4156	5900	9907	17475
Kalimantan Timur	IDNKI	4049	5840	8350	14305	26073
Kalimantan Selatan	IDNKS	3051	4413	6323	10866	19868
Kalimantan Tengah	IDNKT	1598	2254	3175	5220	8792
Kalimantan Utara	IDNKU	238	350	508	861	1485
Maluku	IDNMA	583	938	1300	2288	4145
Maluku Utara	IDNMU	637	1004	1380	2390	4263
Bali	IDNBA	4708	4896	5136	5716	6479
Nusa Tenggara Barat	IDNNB	2290	3623	4984	8592	15040
Nusa Tenggara Timur	IDNNT	1160	1843	2541	4451	8131
Papua	IDNPA	1238	1960	2699	4687	8373
Papua Barat	IDNPB	583	932	1288	2312	4460
Gorontalo	IDNGO	639	793	1025	1704	2857
Sulawesi Utara	IDNSA	1940	2446	3206	5454	9344
Sulawesi Tenggara	IDNSG	6598	8285	10822	18315	31268
Sulawesi Selatan	IDNSN	1354	1679	2168	3612	6117
Sulawesi Tengah	IDNST	1150	1430	1851	3264	6415
Aceh	IDNAC	3074	4284	5676	9738	16847
Kepulauan Bangka Belitung	IDNBB	1369	1877	2460	4179	7246
Bengkulu	IDNBE	1059	1474	1952	3371	5959
Jambi	IDNJA	2112	2952	3919	6744	11700
Kepulauan Riau	IDNKR	3479	4934	6608	13141	27719
Lampung	IDNLA	5177	7215	9559	16361	28107
Riau	IDNRI	6108	8130	10454	17263	29251
Sumatera Barat	IDNSB	3646	5145	6868	11909	20720
Sumatera Selatan	IDNSS	5594	7879	10507	18177	31532
Sumatera Utara	IDNSU	11748	16509	21983	38639	70244
Sulawesi Barat	IDNSR	439	547	709	1181	1973

Fuel Prices

Fuel price projections

Fuel	Unit	2020	2030	2040	2050
Coal	USD2020/mt	60.8	194.24	194.24	194.24
Natural gas	USD2020/mmbtu	3.2	23.86	23.86	23.86
Oil	USD2020/bbl	42.3	76.94	76.94	76.94

Scenarios

The model was used to explore three scenarios: Current Policies [CP], Least-cost [LC], and Net-Zero [NZ]. The scenarios represent alternate pathways for the expansion of Indonesia’s electricity system. Each scenario consists of a set of assumptions and constraints, as detailed below:

Current policies (TBC)

This scenario includes all implemented policies related to the expansion of Indonesia’s electricity system as well as committed power plants.

Least-cost

This represents an ‘unconstrained’ development of the electricity system. It does not include any emission or renewable energy targets. Planned powerplants are provided as ‘options’ to invest in but are not forced into the model.

Net-zero

This scenario includes an explicit target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050, with peak emissions in 2040.

Results

Capacity expansion

BAU

Net-zero

Annual electricity generation mix

BAU

Net-zero

Hourly electricity generation mix

BAU

Net-zero

Planned improvements

• Plant-specific efficiencies

• Hydropower capacity factor by plant / node

• Technology-specific discount rates

• Multiple weather years

• Province-specific demand profiles

Model code, data, and workflow

The entire workflow of FEO Global is available on GitHub under an open license (AGPL v3.0) at transition-zero/feo-esmod-osemosys. In addition, it uses only publicly available data and an open source solver (CBC).

References

• ‘An Energy Sector Roadmap to Net Zero Emissions in Indonesia’, IEA, 2022

• ‘Indonesia Energy Transition Outlook’, IRENA, 2022

• ‘RUPTL 2021-2030’, PLN, 2021

• ‘Beyond 443 GW - Indonesia’s Infinite Renewable Energy Potentials’, IESR, 2021

• ‘Indonesia Long-Term Strategy for Low Carbon and Climate Resilience 2050’